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Prediction for CME (2026-08-14T05:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-14T05:09Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48075/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the East in STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-08-14T05:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME was not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real-time due to a data gap which began at 2026-08-14T04:48Z. The source of this event is a filament eruption centered at approx. S10E20 with liftoff beginning at approx. 2026-08-14T04:00Z. This filament is heavily deflected to the West as it erupts as seen in SDO AIA, STEREO A EUVI and GOES SUVI 304. Field line opening, dimming and post eruptive arcades are also visible in SDO AIA 171, 193, STEREO A EUVI 195 and GOES SUVI 284.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-17T02:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-17T18:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-08-14T12:26Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 525
Longitude (deg): 019E
Latitude (deg): 09N
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: Early fit based on available GOES CCOR and STEREO A COR2 only. Fit mainly to the latter, assuming CCOR perspective largely hidden behind occulting disc and mount, although it does show to NW later in UTC morning. Very small associated flare (B-class) counts against impacts, but reasonably-sized filament and clear crossing of Sun-Earth line in e.g. GOES SUVI 303 imply some impacts. G1 most probable. Estimate subject to revision, likely arriving within UTC morning of 17 August. Adjusted due to lack of HSS at Earth, so Enlil wind speeds now too high and CME arrival time expected to be too early.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence / Rebecca Spalton

Lead Time: 26.52 hour(s)
Difference: -15.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-08-16T00:15Z

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